Calculation expect pension payout given survival probabilities

actuarial-scienceprobabilityprobability theory

Just wondering. How is the expected pension payout calculated, given an agreed fixed annual payment of a made up figure of 1000, whilst linking it to survival probabilities coming from life tables (I deliberately ignore inflation and other factors). Is it simply a question of multiplying each amount by the pensioner's survival probability depending on age as indicated in this table:

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Any feedback would be very much appreciated. Thanks!

PS:

This above survival probabilities come (I think) from UK life tables. These tables contain information like the following depending on age and gender:

mx
is the central rate of mortality, defined as the number of deaths at age x last birthday in the three year period to which the National Life Table
relates divided by the average population at that age over the same period.

qx
is the mortality rate between age x and (x +1), that is the probability that a person aged x exact will die before reaching age (x +1).

lx
is the number of survivors to exact age x of 100,000 live births of the same sex who are assumed to be subject throughout their lives to the
mortality rates experienced in the three year period to which the National Life Table relates.

dx
is the number dying between exact age x and (x +1) described similarly to lx, that is dx=lx-lx+1.

ex
is the average period expectation of life at exact age x, that is the average number of years that those aged x exact will live thereafter
based on the mortality rates experienced in the three year period to which the National Life Table relates.

I would think, that 1 – qx represents the survival probability but I am not 100% sure.

Best Answer

With a fixed annual payment of 1000 per year, we can treat the pension plan as a life annuity. The actuarial present value (APV) of a life annuity paying 1 per year is given by $$APV=a_x=\sum _{t=1}^\infty v^t{_tp_x}$$ where $v^t=(1+i)^{-1}$ is the discount factor and $_tp_x$ is the probability of a life aged $x$ surviving $t$ years. In your case of $i=0$ (no interest rate), we have $v^t=1$, and the above expression becomes $$APV=a_x=\sum_{t=1}^\infty{_tp_x}$$ So the expected payout of your annuity is just $$1000\sum_{t=1}^\infty {_tp_x}$$ Where $$_tp_x=\prod _{k=0}^{t-1}{p_{x+k}}$$

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