Calculating Probability of Random Circle Intersection

geometryprobability

I have no idea how to properly word this problem, since it's pretty specific. I also apologize if this has been asked before.

My scenario is this:

I have a circle with radius 15. Within this circle I randomly place another circle of radius 20. Within that newly placed circle, I place yet another randomly placed circle of radius 10.

What I'm trying to figure out is the odds that the third circle will overlap the center of the first circle.

I'm not too great at math. The furthest I've made it is to treat it as a linear issue, which I could only figure out 2 layers deep.

EDIT: Here is a picture to represent two possible generations of the problem.enter image description here

The 2nd circle's center point/origin is placed anywhere within the yellow area, the 3rd within the brown area. They can overlap as much as they want. In this case, the 1st of the two is a failure and the 2nd of the two is a success.

Best Answer

Here is one possible interpretation of this problem, and method of calculating an answer.

Let $D(r)$ denote the disk of radius $r$ centered at $(0,0)$ in the plane. Pick a random vector $X$ uniformly from $D(15)$ and independently pick a random vector $Y$ uniformly from $D(20)$. What is sought is the probability that $X+Y\in D(10).$

That is, the event that origin $(0,0)$ is within distance $10$ of the point $X+Y$ can be expressed either by stating that $(0,0)$ is in the $10$-disk centered at $X+Y$ or, equivalently, that $X+Y$ is in the $10$-disk centered at $(0,0)$.

The chance of this can (in principle) be worked out by writing the density function of $\|X+Y\|$ in terms of Bessel functions, exploiting the rotational symmetry of the density functions of $X$, of $Y$, and of $X+Y$.

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