Bound for probability with almost sure convergence

convergence-divergenceprobabilityprobability theoryrandom variablesstochastic-processes

Let $(X_n)_n$ be random variables which converge almost surely to a constant $x \in \mathbb R$, i.e. $X_n \xrightarrow{n \to \infty} x$ a.s. Let $Y$ be another random variable.

Question: Can I say something like $$\mathrm{Pr}(Y \geq X_n) \leq \mathrm{Pr} \left(Y \geq \frac{x}{2} \right)$$ for $n$ large enough?

Best Answer

No, you cannot have such an inequality. Let $X_n$ take the values $0$ and $1$ with probabilities $\frac 1 {2^{n}}$ and $1-\frac 1 {2^{n}}$ respectively. Since $\sum P(X_n=0)<\infty$ Borel cantalli Lemma shows that $X_n \to 1$ almost surely. Now take $Y=\frac 1 4$. Then $P(Y\geq X_n) =\frac 1 {2^{n}}$ and $P(Y \geq \frac 1 2)=0$.

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