Binomial distribution (i think)

binomial distributionprobability

This may seem like a simple question but I honestly don't really know how I would go about solving it.
So essentially the question is as follows:

2 players play a match whereby the winner is the first person to win n games.

the probability of player 1 winning a single game is 0.835
the probability of player 2 winning a single game is 0.165

what is the smallest value for n such that the probability that player 1 is the overall winner of the match is at least 0.9


I feel like i need to use binomial distribution to solve the question but i wasn't able to do so.
Any help will be greatly appreciated.

Best Answer

With $p = 0.835, 2$ games are obviously not enough, because A would need to win both games, with a $Pr = {0.835}^2 <0.9$, so trials can begin from number of games played, $K = 3$

You would find computations much simpler if you focus on the losses of $A$ rather than wins.

For example, with $K=3$, $A$ can afford to lose at most one game, so the probability of an overall win is $\binom30q^0p^3 + \binom31q^1p^2$, which happily works out to

$\binom30 0.165^0\cdot 0.835^3 + \binom310.165^1\cdot0.835^2 = 0.9273$

thus the smallest value of n (games won) needed $=2$


Response to queries

We are trying to use the smallest number of games $(K)$ so we can find the smallest number of wins ($n$) needed.

With $K=3$, we found $n=2$ is possible if we include more than $2$ wins in the series of $K$ games.

If we want to strictly say that more than $n$ wins can't be included in the probability calculations, the formula will change to $\binom{K}{n} p^nq^{K-n} \geq 0.9$

A little thought will show that with this formula, the Pr will never reach $0.9$, even for $n=2$, see here

So either we'll have to allow more than $n$ wins in the Pr computations, else it is impossible.