Binomial approximation with normal distribution

binomial distributioncentral limit theoremnormal distributionprobabilitystochastic-processes

Maybe a stupid question but I was trying to approximate the binomial distribution with a normal distribution and I can't understand where the problem is.

Online I read that a binomial distribution can be approximated like this using the central limit theorem:

If we have i.i.d. binomial distributed random variables $X_{i}$ than we can write
$P(\sum_{0}^{n}X_{i}\leqslant z)=Φ(\frac{z-np}{\sqrt{np(1-p)}})$

I have tried to come to this solution but applying the central limit theorem that is formulated: "$\lim_{n \to \infty} P(\frac{S_{n}-nμ}{\sqrt{nσ2}}\leqslant z)\Rightarrow Φ(z)$" I come to the solution that the normal approximation is $Φ(\frac{z-n^2p}{\sqrt{n^2p(1-p)}})$. This is because of the $n$ in the numerator and the $\sqrt{n}$ in the denominator.

Where do these two go in the formula I found online?

Best Answer

If you want to approximate $X_n\sim\mathsf{Bin}(n,p)$ with a normal distribution then you must go for $X_n=\sum_{i=1}^nB_i$ where the $B_i$ are iid and have Bernoulli distribution with parameter $p$.

Then: $$\frac{X_n-\mathbb EX_n}{\mathsf{SD}(X_n)}=\frac{X_n-np}{\sqrt{np(1-p)}}\to U\text{ a.s.}$$where $U$ has standard normal distribution.

Note that here:$$\frac{X_n-np}{\sqrt{np(1-p)}}=\frac{\bar B_n-p}{\sigma/\sqrt{n}}$$for $\sigma=\mathsf{SD}(B_1)=\sqrt{p(1-p)}$, showing the connection with CLT.


Edit concerning questions in comments on this question:

If a random variable $Y$ has a second moment then it has a standardized form: $$Y^*:=\frac{Y-\mu}{\sigma}$$where $\mu:=\mathbb EY$ and $\sigma^2:=\mathsf{Var}Y$.

Characteristic for this form are: $$\mathbb EY^*=0\text{ and }\mathsf{Var}Y^*=1$$

Formulation of CLT: If $X_1,X_2,\dots$ are iid random variables that have a second moment and: $$S_n:=X_1+\cdots+X_n$$ then standard form $S_n^*$ converges to a random variable $Z$ that has standard normal distribution.

If in this context $\mathbb EX_1=\mu$ and $\mathsf{Var}(X_1)=\sigma^2$ then we find $\mathbb ES_n=n\mu$ and $\mathsf{Var}(S_n)=n\sigma^2$ so that we find:$$S_n^*:=\frac{S_n-n\mu}{\sigma\sqrt{n}}$$

Applying this on special case where $X_i$ have Bernoulli distribution with parameter $p$ we get:$$S_n^*:=\frac{S_n-np}{\sqrt{np(1-p)}}$$ In this situation $S_n$ has binomial distribution with parameters $n$ and $p$.

Applying this on special case where $X_i$ have Poisson distribution with parameter $\lambda$ we get:$$S_n^*:=\frac{S_n-n\lambda}{\sqrt{n\lambda}}$$ In this situation $S_n$ has Poisson distribution with parameter $n\lambda$.

Related Question