At least one page contains two misprints in a 250 page book

probabilityprobability distributions

A book is published, after using a Poisson distribution you find that the probability a given page has at least two misprints is $\frac{7}{400}$. We know discover that the book is 250 pages long, what is the probability that at least one page in this book has at least two misprints?

I tried to tackle this problem using a binomial distribution, i.e.: $\binom{250}{0}(\frac{7}{400})$ to determine the probability of exactly zero pages having two misprints and subtracting that from 1 to get the probability that at least 1 has two misprints. Am I correct in my understanding?

Best Answer

Since the probability of one page having at least $2$ misprints is $\frac{7}{400}$, the probability of a page having less than $2$ misprints is $\frac{393}{400}$. Then, the probability of all $250$ pages having less than $2$ misprints is $\big(\frac{393}{400}\big)^{250}$, so the probability of at least one page having at least $2$ misprints is $1-\big(\frac{393}{400}\big)^{250}\approx\boxed{0.98789}$

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