Asymptotic Gambler’s Ruin Probability with Unequal Gain/Loss with Zero-Mean Payoff Distribution

probabilityreal-analysisstatisticsstochastic-processes

The gambler's ruin problem with unequal gain/loss with a payoff distribution whose support is a finite subset of $\mathbb Z$ is an old problem; for example, see Feller (1968, Vol.1, Section XIV.8) and this old MSE question. The simple case of the problem where the payoff distribution takes $-1$ and $1$ with probabilities $p$ and $1-p$, has been studied in many introductory text books (it can be easily adjusted for the case the payoff distribution takes $-1$, $1$, and $0$ with probabilities $p$, $q$, and $1-p-q>0$). The ruin probability for the general case is a linear combination of the roots of the following equation:

$$P_X(z)=1 \Leftrightarrow M_X(t)=1$$

where $P_X(z)=\mathbb E(z^X)$ and $M_X(t)=\mathbb E(e^{tX})$ are the generating function and moment generating function of $X$, respectively.

Inspired by the heuristic method used in this answer, I guess if $\mathbb E(X)=0$ and the range of $X$ is fixed, we have

$$\color{blue}{\lim_{N,M \to \infty} \mathbb P_\text{ruin}(M,N)= \lim_{N,M \to \infty} \frac{N-M}{N}}. $$

Here, $M$ is the gambler's initial wealth, and he is ruined if he loses all of it. If the gambler’s fortune exceeds $N>M$, the gambler wins and his opponent or the casino is ruined.

For any $M$ and $N$, the relation holds for the simple case of the problem described earlier. This is also supported by the method used to adjust the simple case of the problem for the case where $0$ payoff appears with non-zero probability.

The above can be a useful result (if it is proven generally), because in practice the initial moneys of the players ($M$ and $N-M$) can be relatively large compared to the payoff $X$ gained in each round of the game, and the condition $\mathbb E(X)=0$ is somehow shows that the game is balanced and fair.

I am seeking a counterexample, or a rigorous proof for the above conjecture. This can be first studied for the simple payoff distribution that takes two integer values $-r$ and $k$ with probabilities $\frac{k}{r+k}$ and $\frac{r}{r+k}$.

Best Answer

This can be proved by appealing to the optional stopping theorem for martingales. If $\ X_r\ $ is the amount the player wins in round $\ r\ ,$ $$ \color{blue}{X_r\in[-a,b\,]} $$ with probability $1$, where $\ a\ $ and $\ b\ $ are positive, $\ \mathbb{E}\big(X_r\big)=0\ ,$ and $\ \mathbb{E}\big(\big|X_r\big| \big)>0\ ,$ then the player's wealth $\ W_r\ $ after round $\ r\ $ is given by $\ W_0=M\ $ and $$ W_r=M+\sum_{i=1}^rX_i $$ for $\ r\ge1\ ,$ provided the process hasn't terminated. Since \begin{align} \Bbb{E}\big(W_{r+1}\,\big|\,W_1,W_2,\dots,W_r\,\big)&=\Bbb{E}\big(W_r+X_{r+1}\,\big|\,W_1,W_2,\dots,W_r\,\big)\\ &=W_r\ , \end{align} the process $\ \big\{W_r\big\}\ $ is a martingale. The process stops on round $\ T\ ,$ given by $$ T=\inf\big\{\,r\ge1\,\big|\,W_t\le0\ \text{ or }\ W_t\ge N\,\big\}\ . $$ The random variable $\ T\ $ is a stopping time for $\ \big\{W_r\big\}\ ,$ and is finite with probability $1$ (will be proved later). Therefore, the optional stopping theorem tells us that $$ \Bbb{E}\big(W_T\big)=\Bbb{E}\big(W_0\big)=M\ . $$ Since $\ 0<W_{T-1}<N\ $ and $\ W_T=W_{T-1}+X_T\ ,$ then $\ -a<W_T<N+b\ $ with probability $1,$ and since $\ W_T\le0\ $ or $\ W_T\ge N\ ,$ then $\ W_T\in(-a,0]\cup[N,N+b)\ $ with probability $1$. Thus if $\ G\ $ is the cumulative distribution function of $\ W_T\ ,$ then \begin{align} M&=\Bbb{E}\big(W_T\big)\\ &=\int_{-a}^0w\,dG(w)+\int_N^{N+b}w\,dG(w)\\ &=\int_{-a}^0w\,dG(w)+\int_N^{N+b}(w-N)\,dG(w)+N\int_N^{N+b}\,dG(w)\\ &=\int_{-a}^0w\,dG(w)+\int_N^{N+b}(w-N)\,dG(w)\\ &\hspace{2em}+N\,\Bbb{P}\big(N\le W_T<N+b\big)\ . \end{align} Now $\ -a\le\int_\limits{-a}^{\hspace{0.8em}0}w\,dG(w)<0\ ,$$\ 0\le\int_\limits{N}^{\hspace{0.8em}N+b}(w-N)\,dG(w)\le b\ ,$ and $\ \Bbb{P}\big(N\le W_T<N+b\big)=1-P_{\text{ruin}}\ ,$ where $ P_{\text{ruin}} $ is the probability of the player's ruin. Therefore we can write the above equation as: $$ M=I_1+I_2+\left (1-P_{\text{ruin}} \right)N\ , $$ where $\ \big|I_1+I_2\big|\le\max(a,b)\ ,$ or $$ P_{\text{ruin}}-\frac{N-M}{N}=\frac{I_1+I_2}{N}\ , $$ from which it follows that $$ \color{blue}{\left|\,P_{\text{ruin}}-\frac{N-M}{N}\right|<\epsilon} $$ whenever $\color{blue}{\ N>\frac{\max(a,b)}{\epsilon}\ }.$

Proof that $\ T\ $ is almost surely finite

By definition, \begin{align} \{\ T=\infty\,\}&=\bigcap_{t=1}^\infty\big\{\,0<W_t<N\,\big\}\\ &=\bigcap_{t=1}^\infty\left\{\,{-}M< \sum_{i=1}^t X_i<N-M\,\right\}\\ &\subseteq\left\{\,{-}M< \sum_{i=1}^t X_i<N-M\,\right\} \end{align} for all $\ t\ .$ Therefore $$ \Bbb{P}(T=\infty)\le \Bbb{P}\left({-}M< \sum_{i=1}^t X_i<N-M\,\right)\tag{1}\label{e1} $$ for all $\ t\ .$ The condition $\ \mathbb{E}\big(\big|X_r\big| \big)>0\ $ guarantees that the random variables $\ X_r\ $ have positive variance $\ \sigma\ ,$ say. By the central limit theorem, therefore, the distributions $\ F_n\ ,$ say, of the random variables $$ \frac{\sum_\limits{i=1}^nX_i}{\sigma \sqrt{n}} $$ converge pointwise to the standard normal distribution as $\ n\rightarrow\infty\ .$ Let $\ \delta>0\ $ be such that $$ \mathcal{N}(0,1;\delta)-\mathcal{N}(0,1;{-}\delta)<\frac{\epsilon}{3}\ , $$ and $\ L\ $ such that \begin{align} \big|F_n({-}\delta)-\mathcal{N}(0,1;{-}\delta)\big|&<\frac{\epsilon}{3} \ \text{ and }\\ \big|F_n(\delta)-\mathcal{N}(0,1;\delta)\big|&<\frac{\epsilon}{3} \end{align} for all $\ n\ge L\ .$ Let $$ t\stackrel{\text{def}}{=}\max\left(L,\left\lceil\left(\frac{M}{\sigma\delta}\right)^2\right\rceil, \left\lceil\left(\frac{N-M}{\sigma\delta}\right)^2\right\rceil\right)\ . $$ Then $\ \frac{M}{\sigma \sqrt{t}}<\delta, \frac{N-M}{\sigma \sqrt{t}}<\delta \ ,$ and \begin{align} \Bbb{P}\left({-}M< \sum_{i=1}^t X_i<N-M\,\right)&=\Bbb{P}\left(\frac{{-}M}{\sigma \sqrt{t}}< \frac{\sum_\limits{i=1}^t X_i}{\sigma \sqrt{t}}<\frac{N-M}{\sigma \sqrt{t}}\,\right)\\ &\le\Bbb{P}\left({-}\delta\le \frac{\sum_\limits{i=1}^t X_i}{\sigma \sqrt{t}}<\delta\,\right)\\ &=F_t(\delta)-F_t({-}\delta)\\ &=F_t(\delta)-\mathcal{N}(0,1;\delta)\\ &\hspace{1em}+\mathcal{N}(0,1;{-}\delta)-F_t({-}\delta)\\ &\hspace{1em}+\mathcal{N}(0,1;\delta)-\mathcal{N}(0,1;{-}\delta)\\ &<\epsilon\ . \end{align} Inequality (\ref{e1}) thus gives $$ \Bbb{P}(T=\infty)\le\epsilon\ , $$ and since $\ \epsilon\ $ can be an arbitrary positive real number, it follows that $\ \Bbb{P}(T=\infty)=0\ .$

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