An expected increasing stochastic will stop if exceeding a threshold. What’s the stopping time

expected valuestochastic-processesstopping-times

I have a non-negative stochastic process $X_1, X_2, …$ with expected increasing value, i.e., $E[X_{i+1}|X_{i}]=c \cdot X_{i}$ where $c>1$.

This process start with $X_1=a$ and will stop once $X_T>b$ for some time $T$. $(b>a)$

I want to know the expected stopping time of this process. My intuition tell me that the expected stopping time is $\log_c \frac{b}{a}$. But I cannot find any proof for it.

Thanks.

Best Answer

The expected value of $T$ is not necessarily given by $\log_c \frac ba$, and in fact does not need to be finite. For example, let $Y_n$ be iid random variables with $\mathbb{P}(Y_n=2b) = \frac{c}{2b}$, $\mathbb{P}(Y_n=0) = 1-\frac{c}{2b}$. I'm assuming $c < 2b$ here, but the example can be easily modified if that is not the case.

Note that $\mathbb{E}[Y_n] = c$, so if we let $X_1 = a$ and $X_i := \prod_{n=2}^i Y_n$ then $X_i$ satisfies your properties by independence. However, we can directly compute the distribution of your stopping time since $X_i$ either passes $b$ immediately or never passes $b$: \begin{align*} \mathbb{P}(T = 2) &= \frac{c}{2b} \\ \mathbb{P}(T = \infty) &= 1-\frac{c}{2b}. \end{align*} Since $T = \infty$ with positive probability, $\mathbb{E}[T] = \infty$.