An excellent free-throw shooter attempts several free throws until she misses.

probability

An excellent free-throw shooter attempts several free throws until she misses.

(a) If p = 0.9 is her probability of making a free throw, what is the probability of having the first miss on the 13th attempt or later?

For a). why is it $0.9^{12}$, I was thinking $0.9^{12}$*0.1 since she is gonna miss on the $13^{th}$ time.

Best Answer

The question states that the first miss attempt happens on or later. The presence of the "or later" signifies that there will be at least 12 makes, which is $0.9^{12}$.

Another way of thinking about it is through summing all the probabilities that the first miss occurs after the first 13 shots. This can be modeled by a geometric variable as denoted below: $$ \sum_{i=13}^\infty (0.9)^{i-1}(1-0.9) $$

Both of these methods are correct and yield the same answer its just how you think about it.

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