Probability – Application of Central Limit Theorem for Upper Bound

central limit theoremprobability theoryreal-analysis

Let $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ be iid random variables with $EX_i=\mu, \rm{Var}(X_i)=\sigma^2$. Let $S_n=\sum_{i=1}^n X_i$. Then by the Central Limit Theorem,
$$P\left(\frac{S_n-n\mu}{\sqrt{n}}\leq z\right)\to \Phi(z/\sigma)$$

I am wondering if there exists a constant $C$, which does not depend on $z$ and such that $C\Phi(z/\sigma)<1$, such that $$P\left(\frac{S_n-n\mu}{\sqrt{n}}\leq z\right)\leq C\Phi(z/\sigma)$$ for all $n$.

I am thinking this is true, and I wanted to confirm if that's indeed the case. Any suggestions?

Best Answer

I think there is confusion about the convergence statement for 'large' but finite $n$. Take, for example, the $X$ distribution $$p(x)=\frac{2}{\pi}(1+x^2)^{-2}$$ which has mean $0$ and variance $1$. The convergence statement is, for every $\epsilon>0$ there is an $n$ such that $\left|P(\bar S_n\leq z)-\Phi(z) \right|<\epsilon$ in some norm. This does not imply that the ratio $\frac{P(\bar S_n\leq z)}{\Phi(z)}$ is bounded for any finite $n$ for all $z$ on the real line. (I apologize, I know I did not define $\bar S_n=S_n/\sqrt{n}=\sqrt{n}\hat \mu$, Andrew's comment clarifies.)

Asymptotically, for the example distribution, up to constants (that depend on $n$, but not $z$), $P(\bar S_n\leq z)\sim \frac{1}{|z|^{3n}}$ and $\Phi(z)\sim \frac{e^{-z^2/2}}{|z|}$. These come from the leading terms in the Laurent series expansion of the CDF $\int_{-\infty}^z{p_X(t) dt}$ near $z=-\infty$. I am using the generous lower bound $(P(X_i\leq z\sqrt{n}))^n \leq P(\bar S_n\leq z)$. You can check these expressions here for the sample distribution and here for the normal approximation. So for every $n$, the ratio is unbounded as $z\to - \infty$.

Convergence implies that the interval in which such a bound holds can be made arbitrarily large. But unfortunately it is never the whole line for any finite $n$. The 'closeness' guaranteed by the CLT is as the norm of the difference, which does not translate to a bound in the ratio.