Time-Series – How to Analyze Logarithmic Returns in Econometrics

econometricstime series

Why is it that in many econometrics papers, especially the ones dealing with financial time-series data returns are modelled as logarithmic differences in prices
$r_t=\ln⁡(p_t )-\ln⁡(p_{t-1} )$, what is the advantage/disadvantage of using instead the traditional percentage change formula $r_t=p_t/p_{t-1}-1$?

Best Answer

The use of linear returns (percentage change) and log returns are both used in financial applications. Two arguments for using log returns for time series modelling are

  • The distribution of log returns can unlike linear returns easily be project to any horizon
  • Log returns typically have a symmetric distribution which makes modelling easier (stock prices are often assumed to be log normally distributed - log-returns follow a normal distribution)