Solved – Why use Chi-squared distribution to estimate the variance of normal distribution?

chi-squared-distributionestimationnormal distribution

It is well known that one can use $\chi^2$ distribution to estimate the variance of normal distribution (i.e., $N(0,\sigma^2$)).

Is there a particular reason of using $\chi^2$ distribution? Or can we say that it is the "most accurate" way to estimate the variance of a normal distribution? Or does this "most accurate" thing exist? If it exists and it is not $\chi^2$ distribution, then what it is?

Thanks!

Best Answer

I'd say that it is not well known that one can use $\chi^2$ distribution to estimate the variance of a sample from a $\mathcal{N}(0,\sigma^2)$ distribution. It is well-known that if $X_1,\dots,X_n$ is a random sample from a $\mathcal{N}(\mu,\sigma^2)$ distribution:

  • if $\mu$ is not known, then $(n-1)S^2_n/\sigma^2$ has a $\chi^2$ distribution with $n-1$ degrees of freedom, where $S^2_n=\frac{1}{n-1}\sum_{i=1}^n(X_i-\bar{X})^2$ is the sample variance and $\bar{X}$ is the sample mean;
  • if $\mu$ is known, e.g. if one knows that $\mu=0$, then $nS^2_0/\sigma^2$ has a $\chi^2$ distribution with $n$ degrees of freedom, where $S^2_0=\frac{1}{n}(X_i-\mu)^2$;

and that these facts can be used to show the $S^2_n$ (mean unknown) and $S^2_0$ (mean known) are unbiased estimators of $\sigma^2$.

If $\mu$ is known, then $$Z_i=\frac{X_i-\mu}{\sqrt{\sigma^2}}\sim\mathcal{N}(0,1)$$ and $$\sum_{i=1}^n Z_i^2=\sum_{i=1}^n\frac{(X_i-\mu)^2}{\sigma^2}= \frac{n\left(\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n(X_i-\mu)^2\right)}{\sigma^2}=\frac{nS^2_0}{\sigma^2}\sim\chi^2_n $$ by the definition of the $\chi^2$ distribution.

Since $\chi^2_n=\text{Gamma}\left(\frac{n}{2},\frac{1}{n}\right)$ and if $Y\sim\text{Gamma}(\nu,\lambda)$ and $a>0$ then $aY\sim\text{Gamma}\left(\nu,\frac{\lambda}{a}\right)$, $$S^2_0=\frac{\sigma^2}{n}\left(\frac{nS^2_0}{\sigma^2}\right)\sim \text{Gamma}\left(\frac{n}{2},\frac{n}{2\sigma^2}\right) $$ Hence $E[S^2_0]=\frac{n/2}{n/2\sigma^2}=\sigma^2$, i.e. $S^2_0$ is an unbiased estimator.

The proof when $\mu$ is unknown is similar but a bit cumbersome because one must show that $\bar{X}$ and $S^2_n$ are independent random variables (see Casella and Berger, Statistical Inference, Theorem 5.3.1).