Solved – Unit root tests: how to decide if to include a trend and/or a constant

stationaritytime seriesunit root

Applying a test to univariate time series data for checking if the series has a unit root or not, one is faced with a decision if one would like to test if the series is stationary around a constant or a trend. But I am not pretty sure, based on what sign should I infer which test is the reasonable one? Is it correct to look at the plot of the data and see if there is a trend visible, and if yes, then opt for a test of stationarity around a trend? And with the constant the same way: if there is no trend visible then see if the series might have a mean different from zero?

Best Answer

In general, if you decide what hypotheses to test by looking at the data you have to take the resulting p-values with a pinch of salt. The test for stationarity around a trend is the less specific (the slope can be as small as you like), so it's perhaps the better one if you're not prepared to assume beforehand that there's no trend. (And for some tests the null hypothesis is that there is a unit root; for others that there isn't, so you have another choice there.) Many people prefer just to examine the auto-correlation & partial auto-correlation functions for raw, de-trended, & differenced data.

As for the mean of a stationary series: you can certainly test whether it's significantly different from zero. But don't confuse lack of significance with positive evidence that it's exactly equal to zero & therefore remove it just for this reason.

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