Solved – Understanding very high p value with Spearman’s rank correlation

correlationp-valuespearman-rho

I've been using an Excel add-on to calculate Spearman's rank correlation coefficients between two variables (bone density and bone survivorship / preservation) with and without a potentially problematic data point. My outputs have been as follows:

  • Bone Density 1: $\rho$ -0.050 p-value 0.784
  • Bone Density 1 with problem data: $\rho$ 0.020 p-value 0.9117
  • Bone Density 2: $\rho$ -0.039 p-value 0.8314
  • Bone Density 2 with problem data: $\rho$ 0.007 p-value 0.9705

If I understand correctly, all of the $\rho$ values indicate very weak correlations. However, the very high p-values indicate that I cannot reject the null hypothesis.

  • What does this mean for the interpretation of the $\rho$ values?
  • Should I say that the rho values indicate weak correlations, but the p-values indicate that I cannot reject the null hypothesis?

Best Answer

You are misinterpreting the p-value. It actually represents the probability to observe a certain effect or stronger (in your case a correlation) if the null hypothesis - i.e. no correlation - is the correct one. So your results are perfectly consistent: correlation coefficient is close to zero, and p-value confirms that the little correlation apparently visible is actually a statistical fluke. In fact, adding or removing data will change a bit your correlation coefficient, but the p-value tells you that in both instances the correlation is not actually there.

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