Solved – Tricky Poisson distribution question

distributionsiidpoisson distributionprobability

Am new to probability and have been struggling to solve the following question.

Assume $X_1, \ldots,X_4$ are IID with $X_i ∼ \text{Po}(λ)$. Let $Y = \frac{1}{4} (X_1 + \ldots + X_4)$.
Find $\text{Pr}(Y < 2)$ in terms of $\lambda$.

Can anyone explain the relevance of the random variables being IID? this seems to be putting me off.

Best Answer

"IID" stands for "independent, identically distributed", but the "identically distributed" part isn't really that important here (outside of convenience), at least in the sense that one could ask a similar question with different $\lambda$'s.

However, the independent part is critical, because it allows you to apply the result that a sum of independent Poisson random variables has a Poisson distribution, with mean equal to the sum of the component means. (When you don't have independence you don't generally have that a sum of Poissons is Poisson; an obvious exception is the case where all the $X_i$'s are equal.)

So rather than throwing you off, it makes the problem much easier than if the variables were dependent.

You can see that independence makes a difference by also considering the case where $X_1=X_2=X_3=X_4$.

[There's another neat trick that makes answering easier still. You're asked for $P(Y<2)$, but $Y=\overline{X}$, so $Y$ is not Poisson. The trick is to convert the event into an equivalent event that is easy to work with, given the abovementioned result.]

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