Solved – The weighted sum of two independent Poisson random variables

distributionspoisson distribution

Using wikipedia I found a way to calculate the probability mass function resulting from the sum of two Poisson random variables. However, I think that the approach I have is wrong.

Let $X_1, X_2$ be two independent Poisson random variables with mean $\lambda_1, \lambda_2$, and $S_2 = a_1 X_1+a_2 X_2$, where the $a_1$ and $a_2$ are constants, then the probability-generating function of $S_2$ is given by
$$
G_{S_2}(z) = \operatorname{E}(z^{S_2})= \operatorname{E}(z^{a_1 X_1+a_2 X_2}) G_{X_1}(z^{a_1})G_{X_2}(z^{a_2}).
$$
Now, using the fact that the probability-generating function for a Poisson random variable is $G_{X_i}(z) = \textrm{e}^{\lambda_i(z – 1)}$, we can write the probability-generating function of the sum of the two independent Poisson random variables as
$$
\begin{aligned}
G_{S_2}(z) &= \textrm{e}^{\lambda_1(z^{a_1} – 1)}\textrm{e}^{\lambda_2(z^{a_2} – 1)} \\
&= \textrm{e}^{\lambda_1(z^{a_1} – 1)+\lambda_2(z^{a_2} – 1)}.
\end{aligned}
$$
It seems that the probability mass function of $S_2$ is recovered by taking derivatives of $G_{S_2}(z)$ $\operatorname{Pr}(S_2 = k) = \frac{G_{S_2}^{(k)}(0)}{k!}$, where $G_{S_2}^{(k)} = \frac{d^k G_{S_2}(z)}{ d z^k}$.

Is this is correct? I have the feeling I cannot just take the derivative to obtain the probability mass function, because of the constants $a_1$ and $a_2$. Is this right? Is there an alternative approach?

If this is correct can I now obtain an approximation of the cumulative distribution by truncating the infinite sum over all k?

Best Answer

Provided not a whole lot of probability is concentrated on any single value in this linear combination, it looks like a Cornish-Fisher expansion may provide good approximations to the (inverse) CDF.

Recall that this expansion adjusts the inverse CDF of the standard Normal distribution using the first few cumulants of $S_2$. Its skewness $\beta_1$ is

$$\frac{a_1^3 \lambda_1 + a_2^3 \lambda_2}{\left(\sqrt{a_1^2 \lambda_1 + a_2^2 \lambda_2}\right)^3}$$

and its kurtosis $\beta_2$ is

$$\frac{a_1^4 \lambda_1 + 3a_1^4 \lambda_1^2 + a_2^4 \lambda_2 + 6 a_1^2 a_2^2 \lambda_1 \lambda_2 + 3 a_2^4 \lambda_2^2}{\left(a_1^2 \lambda_1 + a_2^2 \lambda_2\right)^2}.$$

To find the $\alpha$ percentile of the standardized version of $S_2$, compute

$$w_\alpha = z +\frac{1}{6} \beta _1 \left(z^2-1\right) +\frac{1}{24} \left(\beta _2-3\right) \left(z^2-3\right) z-\frac{1}{36} \beta _1^2 z \left(2 z^2-5 z\right)-\frac{1}{24} \left(\beta _2-3\right) \beta _1 \left(z^4-5 z^2+2\right)$$

where $z$ is the $\alpha$ percentile of the standard Normal distribution. The percentile of $S_2$ thereby is

$$a_1 \lambda_1 + a_2 \lambda_2 + w_\alpha \sqrt{a_1^2 \lambda_1 + a_2^2 \lambda_2}.$$

Numerical experiments suggest this is a good approximation once both $\lambda_1$ and $\lambda_2$ exceed $5$ or so. For example, consider the case $\lambda_1 = 5,$ $\lambda_2=5\pi/2,$ $a_1=\pi,$ and $a_2=-2$ (arranged to give a zero mean for convenience):

Figure

The blue shaded portion is the numerically computed CDF of $S_2$ while the solid red underneath is the Cornish-Fisher approximation. The approximation is essentially a smooth of the actual distribution, showing only small systematic departures.

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