Solved – The relationship between autoregressive model and distributed-lag model

ardlautoregressivetime series

The autoregressive models (koyck model, adaptive expectation model, potential adjustment model) I have learned so far are all derived from distributed lag models. And intuitively it makes sense since how could an outcome variable effect itself? the outcome should only be affected by the lagged effect of the external variable X. (correct me if I am wrong).

Therefore, can we say that all autoregressive models are derived from distributed-lag models?

And is it true that whether the constructed autoregressive models violate the OLS assumptions depend on the procedure that the autoregressive model is derived?

Thanks

Best Answer

There wasn't enough space in my comment to explain it clearly but this should clarify. Take the koyck distributed lag:

$y_t = \rho y_{t-1} + x_t + \epsilon_t$.

Now, using the lag operator, this can be re-written as

$y_{t} = \sum_{i=0}^\infty \rho^{i}x_{t-i} + \sum_{i=0}^{\infty} \rho^{i} \epsilon_{t-i}$

Notice that, in the immediately previous equation, there is no longer a relationship between the LHS and the previous value of itself. It's an illusion that's only caused by the exogenous regressor having a lagged effect.

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