Solved – the optimal sample size for fitting a GARCH model

garch

I tried fitting an ARMA(1,1)/GARCH(1,1) model to my data consisting of around 5000 data points but I got significant results in Ljung Box test on standardized residuals and squared residuals. However when I used only the last 3000 data points the model showed much better results with non-significant standardized residuals and squared residuals.

My question is why is this the case?Isn't more data supposed to give better models?If not what is the optimal sample size?

Also please see my unanswered question: Procedure for fitting an ARMA/GARCH Model

Best Answer

All models are imperfect representations of reality: the more data you have, the better able you are to detect their imperfections and to take them into account by building better models. So you should expect any kind of goodness-of-fit test to become significant when you increase the sample size enough. You have the choice of deciding that the model performs well enough as it is or of making it more complex to accommodate those previously indiscernible discrepancies.

In this case you might want to first examine carefully the extra 2,000 observations to look for outliers, change-points, &c., then try a model with more GARCH/ARMA parameters as indicated by the auto-correlation functions.