Solved – Simple real world examples for teaching Bayesian statistics

bayesianteaching

I would like to find some "real world examples" for teaching Bayesian statistics. Bayesian statistics allows one to formally incorporate prior knowledge into an analysis. I would like to give students some simple real world examples of researchers incorporating prior knowledge into their analysis so that students can better understand the motivation for why one might want to use Bayesian statistics in the first place.

Are you aware of any simple real world examples such as estimating a population mean, proportion, regression, etc where researchers formally incorporate prior information? I realize Bayesians can use "non-informative" priors too, but I am particularly interested in real examples where informative priors (i.e. real prior information) are used.

Best Answer

Bayesian search theory is an interesting real-world application of Bayesian statistics which has been applied many times to search for lost vessels at sea. To begin, a map is divided into squares. Each square is assigned a prior probability of containing the lost vessel, based on last known position, heading, time missing, currents, etc. Additionally, each square is assigned a conditional probability of finding the vessel if it's actually in that square, based on things like water depth. These distributions are combined to prioritize map squares that have the highest likelihood of producing a positive result - it's not necessarily the most likely place for the ship to be, but the most likely place of actually finding the ship.