Solved – Sample ACF and PACF of a random walk

autocorrelationpartial-correlationtime series

Suppose $X_n$are iid $N(0,1)$ random variables. Define $S_n := \sum_{i=1}^n X_n$. Then $S_n$ is a random walk.
Since $Var(S_n) = n$ and $Cov(S_n, S_m) = \min(n,m)$, $S_n$ is not stationary in the first two moments.

Following is a R plot of a sample path of $S_n$, its "sample ACF" (although it is not stationary), and its "sample PACF" (although it is not stationary).
Why does its "sample ACF" decrease linearly?
Why does its "sample PACF" become zero after lag 1? Thanks!

enter image description here

Best Answer

  1. Sample ACF is not decreasing linearly. You will get the idea of the pattern by calculating corr($S_n, S_m$)

  2. The answer is followed from the definition of PACF. The above random walk you can express as follows. $$S_n = S_{n-1} +X_n \qquad n=1,2,\ldots,N, \text{ where } S_0=0 $$

You can take the second PACF expression as correlation between

$$S_{t+2} − \mathcal P (S_{t+2} \mid S_{t+1}) \text{ and } S_{t} − \mathcal P (S_t \mid S_{t+1} ),$$ where $ \mathcal P(W\mid Z)$ is the best linear projection of $ W$ on $ Z$.

$S_{t+2} − \mathcal P (S_{t+2} \mid S_{t+1}) =X_{t+2}$ and second term will be linear function of $X_{i}, i=1,2,\ldots,t+1 $. Since $X_{n}$'s are iid hence, correlation (second order PACF) is zero. Similar way you could prove higher order PACF are zeros.