Solved – Proper definition of AR()-ARCH() time series model

arimaarmagarchheteroscedasticitytime series

This is how I would define it, if anyone has any objections please let me know!

AR(m)-ARCH(m) time series is an ARCH(m) process in which the variance at time t is conditional on the previous m times such that:

$Var(a_t|z_{t-1},…,z_{t-m})=\sigma^2_t=\omega+\alpha_1a_{t-1}^2+…+\alpha_ma_{t-m}^2$.

ie , the mean is modeled by AR(m) and the variances as ARCH(m)

Best Answer

Here are the equations defining an AR($p$)-ARCH($m$) model for a time series variable $x_t$:

$$ \begin{aligned} x_t &= \varphi_0 + \varphi_1 x_{t-1} + \dotsc + \varphi_p x_{t-p} + \varepsilon_t, \\ \varepsilon_t &= \sigma_t z_t, \\ z_t &\sim i.i.N(0,1), \\ \sigma_t^2 & = \alpha_0 + \alpha_1 \varepsilon_{t-1}^2 + \dotsc + \alpha_m \varepsilon_{t-m}^2. \end{aligned} $$

For the special case of $p=m$ just replace $p$ with $m$ in the top equation.