Solved – PACF and ACF for AR and MA

correlationforecastingmathematical-statisticsregressiontime series

I once heard the following statement:

The PACF (partial autocorrelation function) for MA processes behaves
much like the ACF for AR processes; the PACF for AR processes behaves
much like the PACF for AR processes.

How to understand the logic underlying this statement?

In addition to the strict mathematical proof, are there any approaches to understand this statement, the inherent relationship of AR, MA along with their PACF/ACF, from time series properties, statistics, or any other high-level thoughts?

Best Answer

The statement is related to the fact that the ACF of a stationary AR process of order p goes to zero at an exponential rate, while the PACF becomes zero after lag p. For an MA process of order q the theoretical ACF and PACF show the reverse behaviour, the ACF truncates after lag q and the PACF goes to zero at an exponential rate.

These properties can be used as a guide to choose the orders of an ARMA model. See for instance, Chapter 3 in Time Series: Theory and Methods by Peter J. Brockwell and Richard A. Davis and this.

Related Question