AIC – Understanding Negative AIC Values

aic

My question is related to the thread Negative values for AIC in General Mixed Model. I often get negative AIC values from the software I use. I notice it most when I'm doing time series. But here is what I don't get. When defining the AIC like

$$AIC = 2k-2\ln(L)$$

$L$, the likelihood, is a joint probability and to my understanding must be bound between 0 and 1. Mathematically this implies the $AIC$ must be positive. So I don't know what my software is giving me for the value labeled $AIC$. Any thoughts?

Best Answer

$L$ is not a joint probability (joint cumulative probability density) but joint probability density. Since density only needs to be non-negative and is not bounded from above, $\operatorname{ln}(L)$ can be both positive and negative. Hence, $AIC$ can also be both positive and negative.