Three sentence version:
Each layer can apply any function you want to the previous layer (usually a linear transformation followed by a squashing nonlinearity).
The hidden layers' job is to transform the inputs into something that the output layer can use.
The output layer transforms the hidden layer activations into whatever scale you wanted your output to be on.
Like you're 5:
If you want a computer to tell you if there's a bus in a picture, the computer might have an easier time if it had the right tools.
So your bus detector might be made of a wheel detector (to help tell you it's a vehicle) and a box detector (since the bus is shaped like a big box) and a size detector (to tell you it's too big to be a car). These are the three elements of your hidden layer: they're not part of the raw image, they're tools you designed to help you identify busses.
If all three of those detectors turn on (or perhaps if they're especially active), then there's a good chance you have a bus in front of you.
Neural nets are useful because there are good tools (like backpropagation) for building lots of detectors and putting them together.
Like you're an adult
A feed-forward neural network applies a series of functions to the data. The exact functions will depend on the neural network you're using: most frequently, these functions each compute a linear transformation of the previous layer, followed by a squashing nonlinearity. Sometimes the functions will do something else (like computing logical functions in your examples, or averaging over adjacent pixels in an image). So the roles of the different layers could depend on what functions are being computed, but I'll try to be very general.
Let's call the input vector $x$, the hidden layer activations $h$, and the output activation $y$. You have some function $f$ that maps from $x$ to $h$ and another function $g$ that maps from $h$ to $y$.
So the hidden layer's activation is $f(x)$ and the output of the network is $g(f(x))$.
Why have two functions ($f$ and $g$) instead of just one?
If the level of complexity per function is limited, then $g(f(x))$ can compute things that $f$ and $g$ can't do individually.
An example with logical functions:
For example, if we only allow $f$ and $g$ to be simple logical operators like "AND", "OR", and "NAND", then you can't compute other functions like "XOR" with just one of them. On the other hand, we could compute "XOR" if we were willing to layer these functions on top of each other:
First layer functions:
- Make sure that at least one element is "TRUE" (using OR)
- Make sure that they're not all "TRUE" (using NAND)
Second layer function:
- Make sure that both of the first-layer criteria are satisfied (using AND)
The network's output is just the result of this second function. The first layer transforms the inputs into something that the second layer can use so that the whole network can perform XOR.
An example with images:
Slide 61 from this talk--also available here as a single image--shows (one way to visualize) what the different hidden layers in a particular neural network are looking for.
The first layer looks for short pieces of edges in the image: these are very easy to find from raw pixel data, but they're not very useful by themselves for telling you if you're looking at a face or a bus or an elephant.
The next layer composes the edges: if the edges from the bottom hidden layer fit together in a certain way, then one of the eye-detectors in the middle of left-most column might turn on. It would be hard to make a single layer that was so good at finding something so specific from the raw pixels: eye detectors are much easier to build out of edge detectors than out of raw pixels.
The next layer up composes the eye detectors and the nose detectors into faces. In other words, these will light up when the eye detectors and nose detectors from the previous layer turn on with the right patterns. These are very good at looking for particular kinds of faces: if one or more of them lights up, then your output layer should report that a face is present.
This is useful because face detectors are easy to build out of eye detectors and nose detectors, but really hard to build out of pixel intensities.
So each layer gets you farther and farther from the raw pixels and closer to your ultimate goal (e.g. face detection or bus detection).
Answers to assorted other questions
"Why are some layers in the input layer connected to the hidden layer and some are not?"
The disconnected nodes in the network are called "bias" nodes. There's a really nice explanation here. The short answer is that they're like intercept terms in regression.
"Where do the "eye detector" pictures in the image example come from?"
I haven't double-checked the specific images I linked to, but in general, these visualizations show the set of pixels in the input layer that maximize the activity of the corresponding neuron. So if we think of the neuron as an eye detector, this is the image that the neuron considers to be most eye-like. Folks usually find these pixel sets with an optimization (hill-climbing) procedure.
In this paper by some Google folks with one of the world's largest neural nets, they show a "face detector" neuron and a "cat detector" neuron this way, as well as a second way: They also show the actual images that activate the neuron most strongly (figure 3, figure 16). The second approach is nice because it shows how flexible and nonlinear the network is--these high-level "detectors" are sensitive to all these images, even though they don't particularly look similar at the pixel level.
Let me know if anything here is unclear or if you have any more questions.
Why not just put binary indicator for event as a target variable and length of time period as a explanatory variable (plus other covariates)? If event happens then target is 1 and time period is calculated as time until event happens - start time. For some observations where target is 0 this time period is 36, if measured in months. For some observations where target is 1 it can be much less.
Can there be panel attrition where some observation is removed from the data set before whole surveillance period is over? That must be accounted somehow.
To get individual survival probabilities for various time intervals you score new data set with just developed model object i times where i number of different time periods and particular time period has value n. Then just concatenate i vectors containing time period specific probabilities.
Idea is that measured time period with other covariates accounts for the survival probability conditional on length of time in the observational study.
EDIT:
I looked for R package neuralnet. You can have individual time period specific survival events in the target matrix in the following way. C1 is covariate1, T1 is vector of survival events in the time period 1 etc. Your data frame / matrix could look like this:
ID T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 C1 C2 C3 CN
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 X11 X12 X13 X1N
2 1 0 0 0 0 0 X21 X22 X23 X2N
..
Use following code:
survexample=neuralnet(T1+T2+T3+T4+T5+T6~C1+C2+...+CN,data=example,hidden=n,err.fct="ce",linear.output=FALSE)
This example code does classifying and forces output vector values to be in the range of [0,1].
Best Answer
Replace the activation function (logistic sigmoid?) with the identity function. Your cost function should also be swapped to MSE (in case you are using cross entropy or neg log likelihood). The rest should be basically the same.