Regression – Negative Adjusted R^2 in Two-Way Effects Within Model

fixed-effects-modelpanel datar-squaredregressionvariance

I am having serious trouble understanding the results of my Fixed Effects panel regression. I am using two fixed effects (on year and regions) and I get a negative Adjusted R2 (i am using the plm package in R). Why?
Please find a screenshot of my output below.

I think I am not prone to the usual mistake – all my variables are fairly time variant. Other than I could not find useful explanations for my problem.

Might it have something to do with the unbalancedness of the panel?

Any suggestions would be wonderful!

Screenshot of Output

Best Answer

It is well-known that the relationship between $R^2$ and adjusted $R^2$ in a linear regression (and ultimately, a fixed-effects regression can also be seen as a linear regression, see e.g. Difference between fixed effects dummies and fixed effects estimator?) is (see e.g. Is $R^2_{adjusted}$ both unbiased and consistent under the alternative in simple regression?) $$ R^2_{adjusted}=1-(1-R^2)\frac{n-1}{n-k} $$ For a simple linear regression ($k=2$) as discussed in the comments to the original question we obtain $$ R^2_{adjusted}=1-(1-R^2)\frac{n-1}{n-2} $$ Hence, $R^2_{adjusted}<0$ in a simple linear regression if $$ R^2<1-\frac{n-2}{n-1} $$ or $$ R^2<\frac{n-1-(n-2)}{n-1}=\frac{1}{n-1} $$ Hence, adjusted $R^2$ is negative when the original $R^2$ is very small. In the general case, we obtain $R^2_{adjusted}<0$ if $$ R^2<\frac{k-1}{n-1} $$ Hence, a somewhat larger $R^2$ is possible to still obtain a negative adjusted $R^2$.

At the same time, $R^2_{adjusted}<0$ can be seen to mostly be a small-sample issue (relative to $k$, of course, as the OP's example nicely illustrates) in that the difference between $R^2$ and $R^2_{adjusted}$ vanishes as $n$ increases and that we always (provided there is a constant in the column space of the regressors) have $R^2\geq0$.

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