I have been using the metafor package for some meta-analyses and would like to adjust for a single continuous covariate (mean age) using meta-regression. However, I require some clarification regarding the outputs and what they mean. Below I have shared the output for the base case analysis as well as the meta-regression (same studies in both, with the only difference being the addition of covariates for the meta-regression).
Base case output
Random-Effects Model (k = 36; tau^2 estimator: DL) logLik deviance AIC BIC AICc -18.8613 60.5927 41.7226 44.8896 42.0862 tau^2 (estimated amount of total heterogeneity): 0.0633 (SE = 0.0327) tau (square root of estimated tau^2 value): 0.2515 I^2 (total heterogeneity / total variability): 51.46% H^2 (total variability / sampling variability): 2.06 Test for Heterogeneity: Q(df = 35) = 72.1031, p-val = 0.0002 Model Results: estimate se zval pval ci.lb ci.ub 0.1266 0.0633 2.0014 0.0453 0.0026 0.2506 * --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
Meta-regression (output)
Mixed-Effects Model (k = 36; tau^2 estimator: DL) logLik deviance AIC BIC AICc -18.7696 60.4092 43.5391 48.2897 44.2891 tau^2 (estimated amount of residual heterogeneity): 0.0677 (SE = 0.0346) tau (square root of estimated tau^2 value): 0.2601 I^2 (residual heterogeneity / unaccounted variability): 52.84% H^2 (unaccounted variability / sampling variability): 2.12 R^2 (amount of heterogeneity accounted for): 0.00% Test for Residual Heterogeneity: QE(df = 34) = 72.1024, p-val = 0.0001 Test of Moderators (coefficient(s) 2): QM(df = 1) = 0.2456, p-val = 0.6202 Model Results: estimate se zval pval ci.lb ci.ub intrcpt -0.3741 1.0140 -0.3690 0.7122 -2.3616 1.6133 mods 0.0085 0.0172 0.4955 0.6202 -0.0252 0.0423 --- Signif. codes: 0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
My questions are:
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Why are we observing an R-squared of 0% in the meta-regression (is it simply because the covariate is not significant or do you suspect something is not correct)?
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How can we interpret the outputs of the meta-regression? With back-transformation of the logHRs we suspect something like below, but would like to make sure that I am interpreting the ‘intrcpt’ and ‘mods’ values correctly.
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I have assumed mods represents the pooled HR taking into account the adjustment for age.
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I have assumed intrcpt represents the covariate effect (beta) – i.e. the amount that the logHR changes for a one unit increase in age. Also, I have back-transformed this output, which I am not sure is appropriate, or if I should present as is.
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Best Answer
It is likely that you're observing $R^2 = 0$ because the model fits the data badly (i.e., there's no evidence that mean age has any relationship to the outcome). It is always a good idea to plot your model along with your data when you can. A plot can help you do a visual sanity check that the data tends to follow your regression line. Since you have just a single moderator, it would be fairly easy to make a scatter plot. Here is a metafor example with code you can use. Looking at your base case, the estimated amount of total heterogeneity ($\tau$) is pretty much equal to the estimated amount of residual heterogeneity in the meta-regression, so the addition of the mean age covariate hasn't explained any of the variability between studies.
Mods (0.0085) represents the estimated change in the true logHR for each one unit increase in mean age. However, the p-value is high (and the $95\%$ confidence interval is [-0.0252, 0.0423]) indicating that you don't have significant evidence that this effect is any different from 0.
Intrcpt represents the pooled logHR when the mean age is 0. It does not really make sense to interpret the intercept on its own since a mean age of 0 is not physically plausible. Back-transforming the output is fine (using the exponential function to place the estimate on the HR scale).
As a side note, be cautious about how you approach a meta-regression. If you do try out many different covariates and then stop when you find a significant one, then you should report that this is what you did, because it reduces the significance of your evidence (after all, 5 out of every 100 covariates will appear significant (p < 0.05) just by chance alone, so trying too many covariates increases the probability that you detect an effect when none is truly present).