Solved – How to interpret negative ACF (autocorrelation function)

time series

Returns

So I plotted the ACF/PACF of oil returns and was expecting to see some positive autocorrelation but to my surprise I only get negative significant autocorrelation. How should I interpret the above graph? They seem to indicate that there is a tendency for oil returns to increase when it decreased previously and vice-versa, thus the oscillating behaviour. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Best Answer

Negative ACF means that a positive oil return for one observation increases the probability of having a negative oil return for another observation (depending on the lag) and vice-versa. Or you can say (for a stationary time series) if one observation is above the average the other one (depending on the lag) is below average and vice-versa. Have a look at "Interpreting a negative autocorrelation".