Solved – How to interpret marginal effects of dumthe variable in logit regression

categorical datalogisticmarginal-effectmultiple regressionregression

For a project, I ran a logistic regression using continuous and dichotomous variables. How do I interpret the marginal effects of a dichotomous variable?

For example, one of our independent variables that has a binary outcome is "White", as in belonging to the Caucasian race. Our dependent variable also has a binary outcome (hence the use of the logit model) so our our outcomes are expressed in probabilities. So to interpret the marginal effect of being white on our outcome, would it be something like " a 1% increase in being white affect your probability of the dependent variable by x amount " ?

Any comments or suggestions welcome 🙂

Best Answer

It is easier to think about interpreting your dichotomous predictors by using the concept of the odds ratio.

Let me give you an example: Imagine you are trying to predict smoking status where our smoking variable is a 1 if you smoke and and 0 if you don't smoke (so a dichotomous outcome and so we can use logistic regression). Now, as in your case, imagine that you have a predictor variable called white where the variable is 1 if you are white or 0 if you are not white. In this example, you can fit a logistic regression model that looks something like this:

$$\text{logit}(p)=\beta_0+\beta_1\times \text{white}$$

And now, lets assume that you get an estimate of $\beta_1=-0.5108256$. Now, converting the estimate onto the odds ratio scale is as simple as exponentiating the parameter estimate, i.e, on the odds ratio scale we have $$e^{\beta_1}=e^{-0.5108256}=0.6$$. And so finally what this tells us is that if you are white, you are expected to be 60% less likely to be a smoker as compared to someone who is not white.

And so to answer your direct question, you wouldn't say that "a 1% increase in being white affect your probability of the dependent variable by x amount", but rather that, you are "y" times more likely to observe the dependent variable given that you are white as compared to not being white.