Relative Risk – How to Calculate Relative Risk Based on Two Independent Confidence Intervals

biostatisticsconfidence intervalepidemiologyprobabilityrelative-risk

Medicine A cures 30% of patients (95% CI: 17 to 45).

Medicine B cures 15% of patients (95% CI: 10 to 20).

So I can divide 30% by 15% and say that medicine A is twice as likely to cure the patients compared to medicine B, right?

My question is: how would I make this same calculation for the confidence intervals?

I want to say that medicine A is twice as likely (95% CI: X to Y) to cure the patient as medicine B. Conceptually, do I just divide the CIs or is there something else to do?

Best Answer

You can use the Delta method to obtain an approximate distribution of your relative risk, as shown by that link. Then you can define a pivot and use this to obtain a CI.

I understand that there might be some confusion regarding the use of the Delta method, so here are a few simple steps that show how to construct an approximate CI for the relative risk.

  1. Estimate the RR from the data
  2. Find the natural log of RR: $\log(RR)$
  3. The confidence coefficient is from the standard normal distribution: 1.96 for a 95% confidence interval

Now you need the standard error. Using the Delta method for sample sizes $n$ and $m$ with probabilities $p$ and $q$ respectively, this is found to be

$$SE=\sqrt{\frac{1-p}{pn}+\frac{1-q}{qm}}$$

Of course you need to replace the unknown quantities with your estimates, let's denote them by $\widehat{p}$ and $\widehat{q}$. You might notice that this is the second approximation we are using.

Now that you have the formula, compute the standard error: $SE$

  1. Calculate the lower and upper limits on the log scale: $\log(RR) scale: \log(RR) ± 1.96 \times SE \log(RR)$

  2. Exponentiate!

You can find plenty such information throughout the internet and the above steps are taken from here. We all have Fisher to thank for these approximations!