Solved – How to calculate a confidence interval for the percentage change between two means

confidence interval

The percentage change between two measurements is usually calculated as $100 \cdot \frac{x_2 – x_1}{x_1}$. If I have confidence intervals $(a_1, b_1)$ for $x_1$ and $(a_2, b_2)$ for $x_2$, is the confidence interval for the percentage change given as $100 \cdot \left ( \frac{a_2 – b_1}{b_1}, \frac{b_2 – a_1}{a_1} \right )$?

(The thought being that $a_2-b_1$ is the smallest difference, while $b_2-a_1$ is the greatest difference.)

Additional questions:

  • Is this valid for confidence intervals for variables other than the (sample) mean?
  • Is this valid for confidence intervals for sample means that were obtained for different sample sizes?
  • Is this valid regardless of the distribution of the (sample) mean?
  • Is this valid regardless of the procedure used to obtain the confidence interval (assuming that all the assumptions of the procedure were met)?

It would be nice to have references backing up every answer.

Best Answer

No, it is not valid:

  1. It can produce nonsense: for example if $a_1=-1$, $b_1=2$, $a_2=-2$ and $b_2=3$ then your statement would produce a confidence interval for the percentage change starting at -200% and increasing to -400%.

  2. The width of the confidence interval ought to depend on any dependence between the two random variables.

  3. Even if the the random variables are independent and positive, the confidence interval will depend on their distribution.

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