Solved – Heteroskedasticity in regression with ARIMA errors

arimaheteroscedasticityrseasonalitytime series

It is suggested to use auto.arima with xreg in regression with ARIMA errors. Especially when dealing with multiseasonality with regressors, we can use Fourier terms plus dummies and complete with ARIMA errors.

However, auto.arima assumes homoskedasticity. After running auto.arima and determining optimal orders of ARIMA and the number of harmonics, I have tried to run the model step by step.

The regression model with Fourier terms and dummies shows heteroskedasticity. Is the model still available? Should I necessarily correct for heteroskedasticity?

Best Answer

Yes, it is very important to deal with non constant variance. Ruey Tsay published a paper on this called Outliers, level shifts, and variance changes in time series.