Solved – Forecast Vs Actual accuracy calculation

forecastingtime series

I have two time series, first is forecasted values (results of some forecasting algorithm) and second series is, actual values observed for same time frame.

We are trying to compare both these series and find out how much forecasted values are inline with actual values. We have used MAPE & MAE formulas which are fine when the difference between both are small values.

When difference between actual and forecast values are far off, MAE and MAPE are bigger values (I understand that MAPE has no upper limit, which is why bigger values).

These values make sense for statistician, but when common users saw these numbers, feedback we got was our accuracy calculation is doomed. Now the task we are trying to answer is, how can we calculate the difference between forecast vs actual (using MAE (or) MAPE (or) some other algorithm) and show it with in range of 0 - 100%?

Any suggestions would be appreciated.

EDIT 1: These numbers are handmade to convey the problem we are trying to solve, please don't consider about what forecasting algorithm may improve our forecast values etc., irrespective what best algorithm we use, there are few data sets we have could force us into this particular situation.

Here is example time series:

enter image description here

Best Answer

One approach I've used for this problem is to define the MAPE as

(A-F)/(average of A and F)

instead of

(A-F)/A.

This measure (which I think I borrowed from Mosteller and Tukey's book, but I don't have it at hand right now) is symmetric and bounded by -200% and +200%. I know you wanted it to be 0 through 100, but I got you partway there with a measure I may be able to find a reference for.

I have used this where (a) I wanted a symmetric measure, and (b) where I wanted to cap the errors ['whether they were horrible (200%) or atrocious (5000%) didn't matter]. The image below compares a standard MAPE with this calculation (AdjMAPE). Later edit: because the errors are signed, they should be a form of MPE, not MAPE. See also comments below by me and whuber. enter image description here