Solved – fitted in a GARCH: residual or log-return

fittinggarchresiduals

Given a time-series of log-return of SP500, then to obtain the volatility process what should we do? Some people say that we need using the ARMA model to withdraw the residual series, then plug this residual series into the GARCH model to obtain the conditional variance process? Or directly plug the log-return process of SP500 into the GARCH model to obtain the conditional variance?

I saw that in the book Introduction to Time Series in R, the author fits simulated residuals in GARCH model then he fits SP500 log returns in the GARCH model.

I got confused…

Best Answer

If you use the log returns, you're essentially making the assumption that there is no conditional variation in the mean. In some circumstances you may want to explicitly model both, but other times it may be sufficient to assume a constant mean and focus on the conditional variance. Depends on what you're trying to do.

In addition, if you fit a GARCH model with raw log returns, then you're also implicitly assuming the mean is zero. Centering the data may be important if the mean is large (i.e. especially in lower frequency data).

Related Question