Solved – Find probability of rejecting a true null hypothesis

hypothesis testingself-study

A binomial experiment tests $H_0$ : p = 0.5 against p $\neq$ 0.5 using
significance level 0.05. Only 5 observations are available. Show that
the probability to reject a true null hypothesis is 1/16.

The steps for the solution:

$H_0$ : p = 0.5

$H_a$: p $\neq$ 0.5

$N$ = 5

$\alpha$ = 0.05

Pr(Type I error) = Pr(reject $H_0$ when $H_0$ is true)

The formula implemented from Hypothesis testing, page 12

$\sum_{x=1}^5 b(x, n = 5, p = 0.5) = \sum_{x=1}^5 \binom{5}{n} 0.5^x0.95^{5-x} $

but it doesn't get the answer 1 / 16.

Any suggestion what's wrong ?

Best Answer

For calculating the probability of a Type I Error, we start with: $$ \begin{equation} \label{eql} \begin{split} \text{Pr}(\text{Type I Error}) & = \text{Pr}(\text{reject }H_0 | H_0 \text{ is true}) \\ & = \text{Pr}(\text{reject }H_0 | p=.5, n=5) \end{split} \end{equation} $$

The probability mass function $\text{Pr}(X=x)=\binom{5}{x}.5^x .5^{5-x}$ (note that your pmf incorrectly uses $1-p=.95$) for a binomial random variable $X$ given our $H_0$ ($p=.5,n=5$) is: $$ \begin{split} \text{Pr}(X=0) = \frac{1}{32} = .03125 \\ \text{Pr}(X=1) = \frac{5}{32} = .15625 \\ \text{Pr}(X=2) = \frac{5}{16} = .31250 \\ \text{Pr}(X=3) = \frac{5}{16} = .31250 \\ \text{Pr}(X=4) = \frac{5}{32} = .15625 \\ \text{Pr}(X=5) = \frac{1}{32} = .03125 \end{split} $$

Noting above that only $\text{Pr}(X=0)$ and $\text{Pr}(X=5)$ are below our $\alpha=.05$ threshold, and therefore that $H_0$ may only be rejected if a sample results in $X=0$ or $X=5$, we can move forward as follows:

$$ \begin{equation} \label{eql1} \begin{split} \text{Pr}(\text{Type I Error}) & = \text{Pr}(\text{reject }H_0 | p=.5,n=5) \\ & = \text{Pr}(X=0| p=.5,n=5) + \text{Pr}(X=5| p=.5,n=5) \\ & =2\cdot.03125=.0625=\frac{1}{16} \end{split} \end{equation} $$

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