Solved – Expected number of ratio of girls vs boys birth

probabilityratio

I have came across a question in job interview aptitude test for critical thinking. It is goes something like this:

The Zorganian Republic has some very strange customs. Couples only
wish to have female children as only females can inherit the family's
wealth, so if they have a male child they keep having more children
until they have a girl. If they have a girl, they stop having
children. What is the ratio of girls to boys in Zorgania?

I don't agree with the model answer given by the question writer, which is about 1:1. The justification was any birth will always have a 50% chance of being male or female.

Can you convince me with a more mathematical vigorous answer of $\text{E}[G]:\text{E}[B]$ if $G$ is the number of girls and B is the number of boys in the country?

Best Answer

Start with no children

repeat step

{

Every couple who is still having children has a child. Half the couples have males and half the couples have females.

Those couples that have females stop having children

}

At each step you get an even number of males and females and the number of couples having children reduces by half (ie those that had females won't have any children in the next step)

So, at any given time you have an equal number of males and females and from step to step the number of couples having children is falling by half. As more couples are created the same situation reoccurs and all other things being equal, the population will contain the same number of male and females