Solved – Estimating the CAPM Beta via OLS Regresson

financeregression

I am studying econometrics from the third edition of 'Introduction to Econometrics' by James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson.

On page 166 it digresses into the beta of the stock. It says

Those betas typically are estimated by OLS regression of the actual excess return on the stock against the actual excess return on a broad market index.

My understanding by the language is that the beta of the stock is the coefficient of the regressor, which is the market index's excess return. That is:

$$(R – R_{f}) = \beta_{0} + \beta(R_{m}-R_{f})+u.$$

Thus to estimate the return of a stock

$$\hat{R}-R_{f}=\hat{\beta_{0}}+\hat{\beta}(R_{m}-R_{f}).$$

However for some odd reason when I do homework problems it uses the following equation to estimate returns:

$$\hat{R}-R_{f}=\hat{\beta}(R_{m}-R_{f}).$$

That is it imposes $\beta_{0} = 0$.

I have no doubt my understanding is incorrect. Any assistance would be greatly appreciated.

Best Answer

As Stephen mentions, the confusion is between: (1) the CAPM vs. (2) the market model.

Let $R^f$ denote the risk free rate. We often work with excess returns, which involves subtracting of the risk free rate.

Some simple models for expected returns

  1. ``Market model" $$ R_t - R^f = \alpha + \beta\left(R^m_t - R^f \right) + \epsilon_t $$ $$ E\left[ R_t \right] - R^f = \alpha + \beta\left(E[R^m_t] - R^f \right) $$ The market model is a simple, statistical model and can be justified by assuming that the joint distribution of monthly stock returns is multivariate normal.

  2. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) $$ E\left[ R_t\right] - R^f = \beta\left(E[R^m_t] - R^f \right) $$ The CAPM is an economic theory that expected excess returns of a stock are linear in the excess return of the market, that $\alpha = 0$ from the market model regression.

Be aware that the CAPM doesn't work. It's all over MBA corporate finance, but asset pricing people find it useless. Something less crazy to use would be the Fama-French 3 Factor Model.

Example of how to use the CAPM (or any of these factor asset pricing models).

  1. Compute excess returns: $ R_{i,t} - R^f_t$
  2. Regress excess returns on excess returns of the market and a constant (i.e. run the market model regression). $$ R_{i,t} - R^f_t = \alpha_i + \beta_i \left( R^m_t - R^f_t \right) + \epsilon_{i,t}$$
  3. Ignore the estimated $\hat{\alpha}$.
  4. Your estimated expected excess return according to the CAPM is $\hat{\beta_i} E[R^m_t - R^f_t] $.
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