I have a data for ATM transaction on a daily basis and this data represent a seasonal variation in weekend and holidays.
data structure like this
trans_date tot_amount Weekend Holiday_flag
01/10/2013 164800 0 0
02/10/2013 205900 0 1
03/10/2013 215600 0 0
04/10/2013 228600 0 0
05/10/2013 410200 1 0
I used arima()
function in R to forecast the next one month data but I am not getting better forecast.
I am confusing to capture seasonal variation in my data.
I have to select the ARIMA order from ACF and PACF plot but I have some confusion to capture seasonal order from this graph.
So please advise me how can I select the right ARIMA model for my data
Best Answer
have you tried a "simple" tbats approach with multiple seasonalities yet as explained here: link
I would suggest you are getting familiar with the
forecast
package of Rob J Hyndman. There is also a really good book from him that is available online for free linkAs for your Arima approach i would suggest you use the
auto.arima()
function in the forecast package. There you can include dummy variables including Fourier terms (as explained in the first link). Here is another example for that method linkIrishStat is for sure not wrong when he says that it is hard to make such forecasts "simply" with R - but (based on my own i experience) it is possible to get some good/decent results.
Update:
That is how you can use
auto.arima()
andtbats()
to work with your data. I am not saying anything about if it is good/fits your data/whatever - i just wanted to show you how to use it in the right way. When your dataset is less then a year you can also test other functions in theforecast
package likestl()
for example. When you type?stl()
you will see the help file for the function which normally includes a simple example on how it works. I highly recommend you to have a look at the book from Rob J Hyndman.