Solved – Do Bayes factors require multiple comparison correction

bayesianlikelihood-ratiomultiple-comparisons

As the title: Do Bayes factors require mutliple comparion correction?

For more context, I am calculating very many likelihood ratio tests and I am thinking about how to handle multiple comparison correction. I thought Bayes factors might present a solution – if I am presenting the results in the Bayes factor evidence scale then I think correction should not be required?

Computing full Bayes factors for every test with MCMC would be difficult (but not impossible – although I am not sure how to chose priors really), but following Wasserman (2000), it seems that BIC can be used to approximate the Bayes factor. So it seems to get around my multiple comparisons difficulties I can simply add the $\frac{d_f}{2}\log n$ term to my log-likelihood ratio, exponentiate it and call it a Bayes factor which I can present without correction.

It seems too good to be true, so what am I missing?

My view is that it pushes the inference step to the reader instead presenting the Bayes factor evidence (which is of course exactly what I want to do, philosophically I don't see the need for assigning every point in an image a precise p-value) – but is this likely to be acceptable to reviewers? (The application is in neuroimaging)

Best Answer

What you are missing is that it very rarely makes sense to use a prior for which all of parameters are independent. That might make sense if the parameters were as varied and logically disconnected as, say, the set {some physical constant, some baseball player's batting average, some yeast gene's expression level}.

Most analyses look at sets of parameters that are best modeled as exchangeable, like, say, the set of all current players' batting averages or the set of all yeast genes' expression levels. For estimation, this leads to approaches like this; for testing, it leads to approaches like this.

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