Solved – Direction of relationship in 2×2 contingency tables

contingency tablesfishers-exact-testhypothesis testingstatistical significance

I've been studying contingency table analysis and got to experiment a little bit with Fisher's exact test and Fisher's power test. Now I want to be able to determine the direction of the relationships.

Can anyone tell me what are the best methods to determine the direction of the relationship in 2×2 contingency tables? Is it just by using the odds? Or are there any standard, formal methods to calculate it?

Best Answer

The easiest way to describe the direction is with a sentence like "The proportion of pilots among men was 0.13 higher than among women". You can do this descriptively even if you use Fisher or the odds ratio for the formal test. Note that Fisher is exact for the very rare situation in which both row and column totals are fixed in advance (before the data are gathered). It can also be used for experimental data in which either the row or column totals are fixed. It is not appropriate for any sampling situation. For those it is extremely conservative. Chi-squared will then be closer to the truth, though not real close. I suspect Fisher is commonly (mis)used because of the word "exact" which people read too much into. It's an exact answer to (in most cases) another question.

By way of clarification, I think the earlier posts address the issue of choosing the direction of the alternative in a hypothesis test rather than just describing the observed direction (which is what I addressed).