Time Series – Difference Between Autocorrelation and Partial Autocorrelation

correlationpartial-correlationtime series

I have read some articles about partial autocorrelation of time series and I have to admit, that I do not really comprehend the difference to a normal autocorrelation. It is often stated that the partial autocorrelation between $y_t$ and $y_t-k$ is the correclation between $y_t$ and $y_t-k$ with the influence of the variables between $y_t$ and $y_t-k$ removed? I do not understand this. If we calculate the correlation between $y_t$ and $y_t-k$ then anyways the variables in between are not consindered at all if you use the correlation coefficient for doing that. The correlation coefficient considers two variables only as far as I know.

This really confuses me. I hope you can help me on that. I'd appreciate every comment and would be thankful for your help.

Update: Can anyone try to explain how one could calculate autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation for a time series. I understood how to do this with a sample but not with a time series (because you need three variables according to the example here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partial_correlation). Do you know any example where this is done?

Best Answer

For a while forget about time stamps. Consider three variables: $X, Y, Z$.

Let's say $Z$ has a direct influence on the variable $X$. You can think of $Z$ as some economic parameter in US which is influencing some other economic parameter $X$ of China.

Now it may be that a parameter $Y$ (some parameter in England) is also directly influenced by $Z$. But there is an independent relationship between $X$ and $Y$ as well. By independence here I mean that this relationship is independent from $Z$.

So you see when $Z$ changes, $X$ changes because of the direct relationship between $X$ and $Z$, and also because $Z$ changes $Y$ which in turn changes $X$. So $X$ changes because of two reasons.

Now read this with $Z=y_{t-h}, \ \ Y=y_{t-h+\tau}$ and $X=y_t$ (where $h>\tau$).

Autocorrelation between $X$ and $Z$ will take into account all changes in $X$ whether coming from $Z$ directly or through $Y$.

Partial autocorrelation removes the indirect impact of $Z$ on $X$ coming through $Y$.

How it is done? That is explained in the other answer given to your question.