Sampling – Determining Sample Size When Given Confidence Interval and Margin of Error in a Finite Population

finite-populationproportion;sample-sizesampling

I'm trying to determine n, the sample size.

We have $N=580$ and we want to estimate population proportion, $p$, at a 95%-CI and a margin of error of $0.10$, then I get

$$n=Npq / (N-1)D + pq$$

where $D= B^2 / 4$ to be about $n=86$.

But what if instead we keep that same margin of error at $0.10$ and now only want a 90%-CI, if we use the same formula don't we get the same $n$?

Am I using the formula wrong here?

Best Answer

The formulas concerning the calculation of the sample size to estimate a proportion $p$ in for finite populations are provided on this website. It also contains the derivations.

In short, the sample size necessary for estimating a population proportion $p$ of a finite population with $(1-\alpha)100\%$ confidence and a margin of error no larger than $\epsilon$ is:

$$ n = \frac{m}{1+\frac{m-1}{N}} $$ where $$ m=\frac{z_{1-\alpha/2}^{2}\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{\epsilon^{2}}. $$ $N$ denotes the population size, $z_{1-\alpha/2}$ the $(1-\alpha/2)$-quantile of the standard normal distribution and $\hat{p}$ the estimated proportion.

For $N=580, \alpha=0.05, \epsilon=0.1, \hat{p}=0.5$ (i.e. 95% confidence), we get $n\approx 83$. If we take $\alpha = 0.1$ which corresponds to 90% confidence, we get $n\approx 61$.

The more precise we want our estimate of the popultion proportion to be, the higher our sample size needs to be.

This means that the lower $\alpha$, the higher the necessary sample size will be. The following graph illustrates this (for $N=580, \epsilon=0.1, \hat{p}=0.5$): Sample size alpha

The necessary sample size will also increase with decreasing margin of error $\epsilon$ (note the reversed $x$-axis; graph for $N=580, \alpha=0.05, \hat{p}=0.5$):

Sample size margin of error