Solved – Determining Lag for Granger Causality

aicbicgranger-causalitylagstime series

I am trying to understand how to identify lag length to use for a Granger Causality test. The process as I understand it is:

  1. Use an information criterion such as AIC or BIC to calculate the number of lags to use for each time series.
  2. Choose the larger of the two lags.

I am having trouble understanding how you do step 1 of this process. I program in Python, and am trying to implement this process into code.

Best Answer

Partially answered in comments:

Have you read Dave Gile's blog posts on testing Granger causality? (They will not help you with coding but with lag order selection.) – Richard Hardy
https://davegiles.blogspot.com/2011/04/testing-for-granger-causality.html

You can have a look at this document: http://www.stat.wisc.edu/courses/st333-larget/aic.pdf It shows how to do the implementation in R, but the idea should be easily portable to Python. – Matthias Schmidtblaicher