Solved – Conditional distribution of arrival times in Poisson process

conditional probabilityexponential distributioninterarrival-timepoisson process

Suppose I know over a window $[0, T)$ that I have observed $n$ samples from a poisson process $N_t \sim p(n|\lambda t) = \frac{1}{n!}(\lambda t)^{n}\exp(-\lambda t)$.

What is the conditional distribution of the arrival times $t_1 < t_2 < … < t_n$ on $[0, T)$? In particular, what is the marginal distribution of $t_1$?

Best Answer

An interesting property of Poisson processes is that each event can be considered as "placed" independently and uniformly at a given time $t$ in $[0,T]$ (just like rain drops falling uniformly over the length of a board of length $T$). In other words, if there are $n$ events $\{\tau_i\}_{i=1}^n$, we have $\tau_i \sim \mathrm{Unif}(0,T)$ for all $i$. What you are looking for is the distribution of $t_1=\min \{\tau_i: i=1,\dots,n\}$. Please see this answer for distribution of the minimum of uniform IID variables. In your case: $$ p(t_1|n) = \frac{n}{T^n}(T-t_1)^{n-1} \quad\text{for $t_1\in[0,T]$}. $$

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