Solved – Beta confidence intervals in transformed linear regression

back-transformationdata transformationnonlinear regressionregression

Let's say I have a model:
$$Y_i = \beta_0 \beta_1^{X_i} \epsilon_i$$

(note: This is slightly different than the more common example case of $Y_i = \alpha e^{\beta x_i}\epsilon_i$.)

I can take the log of $Y$:
$$\log Y_i = \log\beta_0 + X_i\log\beta_1 + \log\epsilon_i$$

Assuming all the usual assumptions around the errors, etc, hold, I can estimate this with simple linear regression. However, I only get an estimate, and therefore a confidence interval, for $\log\beta_1$, not $\beta_1$ itself.

Can I backtransform with $\hat{\beta_1} = \exp(\widehat{\log\beta_1})$? If so, for a confidence interval for $\hat{\beta_1}$, would I just transform the endpoints of the interval?

Best Answer

Actually, the interval carries over just fine. The transformation is monotonic; the probability statement that applies on the log-scale transforms directly to the original scale, so as long as the assumptions under which the original interval was computed do apply, then it works as an interval for the original population parameter after transformation.

It's the estimate that may be problematic (but may be okay, depending on what you want). Note that $E[\exp(X)]\neq \exp[E(X)]$ if $\sigma_X^2>0$. If the log-scale estimate is unbiased, the transformed estimate is biased.

If you're happy to have an estimate that's median-unbiased, then the back-transformed estimate is also okay, for the same reason that the interval works.

If you seek mean-unbiasedness there are some choices. For example, if you're prepared to assume a normal distribution on $\hat\beta$ you can unbias it by using the properties of the lognormal. Alternatively, you can use a Taylor expansion to get an approximate adjustment (details are also in a number of posts on this site). If the standard error of the estimate is small, it won't matter much. There are other things that are done.

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