Solved – Assumptions made in Poisson distribution

assumptionsdistributionspoisson distribution

I was going through Poisson distribution and I understand the other assumptions made in Poisson distribution except for the last one which is:

The probability of an event in a small sub-interval is proportional to the length of the sub-interval.

Or

The actual probability distribution is given by a binomial distribution and the number of trials is sufficiently bigger than the number of successes

On the same page, there is an example of goals in a soccer match which follows the Poisson distribution.

Let us assume that there are 64 matches in a soccer world cup. It is given that $\lambda=2.5$. Let us define an event as '5 goals scored in a match' and consider two sub intervals, one which consists of four semifinal matches and so its length is four and another sub interval which consists of eight quarter-final matches and so its length is eight.

Since this random variable follows Poisson distribution and so will satisfy all the assumptions made in Poisson distribution.

My questions are:

1. What is the meaning of 'probability of a certain event in any sub-interval'?

In our case, it will become: probability of scoring 5 goals in semi-finals(/ quarter-finals)

2. What is the meaning of proportionality when we say that 'probability of an event in a small sub-interval is proportional to the length of the sub-interval'?

3. Why is it written 'small' sub-intervals?

Best Answer

Since a Possion distribution models 'objects' arriving randomly and independently in time or, space, the probability of that event occurring in any sub-interval given you know it has occurred already, is uniform. I believe that's where the proportionality part comes in.

Let me give you another scenario.

Suppose a grocery store opens at 8:00am daily, and customers arrive to the store according to a Poisson process. Mike, the shift manager, sees a customer in aisle three at 8:03am and says to himself, "I wonder what the probability is that they entered the store in the last three minutes?"

To answer Mike's question for him recall, "the probability of that event occurring in any sub-interval given you know it has occurred already, is uniform."