Solved – Are MCMC without memory

markov-chain-montecarlo

I'm trying to understand what Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are from the French Wikipedia page. They say "that the Markov chain Monte Carlo methods consist of generating a vector $x_ {i}$ only from the vector data $x_ {i-1}$ it is therefore a process "without memory""

Les méthodes de Monte-Carlo par chaînes de Markov consistent à générer
un vecteur $x_{i}$ uniquement à partir de la
donnée du vecteur $x_{{i-1}}$ ; c'est donc un
processus « sans mémoire »,

I don't understand why they say MCMC are "without memory" as far as we use information from the vector data $x_ {i-1}$ to generate $x_i$.

Best Answer

The defining characteristic of a Markov chain is that the conditional distribution of its present value conditional on past values depends only on the previous value. So every Markov chain is "without memory" to the extent that only the previous value affects the present conditional probability, and all previous states are "forgotten". (You are right that it is not completely without memory - after all, the conditional distribution of the present value depends on the previous value.) That is true for MCMC and also for any other Markov chain.