Residual Diagnostics in Vector Autoregression (VAR) Models

diagnosticestimationresidualstime seriesvector-autoregression

My target is to forecast GDP and I have 5 predictors. I estimated a VAR model and the reason why I employed a VAR is that since it considers all variables as endogenous. Since I am only interested in one dependent variable, should I consider that equation separately and perform residual diagnostics or consider VAR as a whole and perform residual diagnostics tests?

  • Performing LM test and White Heterokedasticty tests for equation
    with GDP as dependent variable rejects the null hypothesis in both
    the tests.

  • However, when I perform LM test and White Heterokedasticty tests to the VAR system, it doesn't reject the null hypothesis. What should I do in such situations?

Best Answer

If you are only interested in one dependent variable, you may look at its equation alone. As Christoph Hanck correctly notes, the other equations of the model do not affect its estimation if you do equation-by-equation OLS (and that is a preferred method for an unrestricted VAR).

However the residual diagnostics fail when looking at that equation. Trying different lags from lag length criteria also didn't work. So I was wondering whether I can report the residual diagnostic test from VAR system.

Choosing to look at and report only the encouraging results while ignoring the discouraging ones might do you a bear favour. To get reliable results, you should not engage in selective reporting. Instead, try building a model that passes the diagnostic tests.

Estimating a GARCH(1,1) and using the inverse of GARCH variance series as weights in WLS solves the issue. I couldn't find any paper that uses the same methodology. So I am not sure about the approach to address the issue.

That could work. Alternatively, consider simultaneous estimation of the single VAR equation + GARCH using e.g. the rugarch package in R (if you are using R). That would likely yield similar results with a bit more efficiency.

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