Different output for logistic regression between R and SPSS: how to get correct probability estimates

binomial distributiongeneralized linear modellogisticrspss

I'm trying to fit a binomial logistic regression model, with the ultimate goal of estimating the chances of success/failure for the predictor variable over the outcome variable.

For some reason I get different results when I do it in R and in SPSS. I don't understand what drives the discrepancy.

In this investigation, I experiment about what influences people to share money with others versus keep the money to themselves. I hypothesize that a negatively-phrased message would make people more likely to share money than a positively-phrased message. I sample 89 people, where each person gets 10 experiment rounds (aka "trials"), to share money or to keep it.

For now, let's ignore within-subjectness. I simply want to know how likely people are to share money in the positive condition vs. the negative condition. So I want to get an estimate that reflects the chances of sharing money in each condition.

  • The outcome variable is dichotomous (binary) — share or keep.
  • The predictor variable is categorical (2-levels) — positive/negative prompt message
  • There's another predictor that I wish to control for (categorical, 2-levels)

Therefore, in R I use the glm() function with family = "binomial".

my_fit <- glm(outcome ~ predictor + var_to_control_for, data = my_data, family = "binomial")

Then, to get the estimates (chances) for the predictor variable I use ggemmeans() such that:

ggemmeans(my_fit, terms = "predictor")
## # Predicted probabilities of outcome

## predictor | Predicted |       95% CI
## ------------------------------------
## n         |      0.71 | [0.67, 0.75]
## p         |      0.16 | [0.13, 0.20]

And in addition I get the p-value for the model, implying that predictor var is indeed "significant":

broom::tidy(my_fit)
## # A tibble: 3 x 5
##   term                estimate std.error statistic  p.value
##   <chr>                  <dbl>     <dbl>     <dbl>    <dbl>
## 1 (Intercept)           0.876      0.133     6.60  4.16e-11
## 2 predictorp           -2.57       0.168   -15.3   5.14e-53
## 3 var_to_control_forB   0.0802     0.164     0.489 6.25e- 1

So far so good. Now, I wanted to double-check my results against SPSS. So for the same data I ran a binary logistic regression.

spss_logistic_reg

The relevant output is given in the following table

spss_table

It is my understanding that

  • the values in Exp(B) are in Odds-Ratio scale.
  • to convert those values from odds-ratio to probability, we need to divide each value x by x+1.

However, dividing 13.084 by 14.084 gives 0.93, clearly not the 0.71 we got from ggemmeans() in R.

How come I don't get the same results when I do this logistic regression procedure in R versus SPSS?

Appendix — code to reproduce data and results

R

## data
my_data <- structure(list(subj_id = c(1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                           1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 3L, 3L, 3L, 3L, 3L, 
                           3L, 3L, 3L, 3L, 3L, 4L, 4L, 4L, 4L, 4L, 4L, 4L, 4L, 4L, 4L, 5L, 
                           5L, 6L, 6L, 6L, 6L, 6L, 6L, 6L, 6L, 6L, 6L, 7L, 7L, 7L, 7L, 7L, 
                           7L, 7L, 7L, 7L, 7L, 8L, 8L, 8L, 8L, 8L, 8L, 8L, 8L, 8L, 8L, 9L, 
                           9L, 9L, 9L, 9L, 9L, 9L, 9L, 9L, 9L, 10L, 10L, 10L, 10L, 10L, 
                           10L, 10L, 10L, 10L, 10L, 11L, 11L, 11L, 11L, 11L, 11L, 11L, 11L, 
                           11L, 11L, 12L, 12L, 12L, 12L, 12L, 12L, 12L, 12L, 12L, 12L, 13L, 
                           13L, 13L, 13L, 13L, 13L, 13L, 13L, 13L, 13L, 14L, 14L, 14L, 14L, 
                           14L, 14L, 14L, 14L, 14L, 14L, 15L, 15L, 15L, 15L, 15L, 15L, 15L, 
                           15L, 15L, 15L, 16L, 16L, 16L, 16L, 16L, 16L, 16L, 16L, 16L, 16L, 
                           17L, 17L, 17L, 17L, 17L, 17L, 17L, 17L, 17L, 17L, 18L, 18L, 18L, 
                           18L, 18L, 18L, 18L, 18L, 18L, 18L, 19L, 19L, 19L, 19L, 19L, 19L, 
                           19L, 19L, 19L, 19L, 20L, 20L, 20L, 20L, 20L, 20L, 20L, 20L, 20L, 
                           20L, 21L, 21L, 21L, 21L, 21L, 21L, 21L, 21L, 21L, 21L, 22L, 22L, 
                           22L, 22L, 22L, 22L, 22L, 22L, 22L, 22L, 23L, 23L, 23L, 23L, 23L, 
                           23L, 23L, 23L, 23L, 23L, 24L, 24L, 24L, 24L, 24L, 24L, 24L, 24L, 
                           24L, 24L, 25L, 25L, 25L, 25L, 25L, 25L, 25L, 25L, 25L, 25L, 26L, 
                           26L, 26L, 26L, 26L, 26L, 26L, 26L, 26L, 26L, 27L, 27L, 27L, 27L, 
                           27L, 27L, 27L, 27L, 27L, 27L, 28L, 28L, 28L, 28L, 28L, 28L, 28L, 
                           28L, 28L, 28L, 29L, 29L, 29L, 29L, 29L, 29L, 29L, 29L, 29L, 29L, 
                           30L, 30L, 30L, 30L, 30L, 30L, 30L, 30L, 30L, 30L, 31L, 31L, 31L, 
                           31L, 31L, 31L, 31L, 31L, 31L, 31L, 32L, 32L, 32L, 32L, 32L, 32L, 
                           32L, 32L, 32L, 32L, 33L, 33L, 33L, 33L, 33L, 33L, 33L, 33L, 33L, 
                           33L, 34L, 34L, 34L, 34L, 34L, 34L, 34L, 34L, 34L, 34L, 35L, 35L, 
                           35L, 35L, 35L, 35L, 35L, 35L, 35L, 35L, 36L, 36L, 36L, 36L, 36L, 
                           36L, 36L, 36L, 36L, 36L, 37L, 37L, 37L, 37L, 37L, 37L, 37L, 37L, 
                           37L, 37L, 38L, 38L, 38L, 38L, 38L, 38L, 38L, 38L, 38L, 38L, 39L, 
                           39L, 39L, 39L, 39L, 39L, 39L, 39L, 39L, 39L, 40L, 40L, 40L, 40L, 
                           40L, 40L, 40L, 40L, 40L, 40L, 41L, 41L, 41L, 41L, 41L, 41L, 41L, 
                           41L, 41L, 41L, 42L, 42L, 42L, 42L, 42L, 42L, 42L, 42L, 42L, 42L, 
                           43L, 43L, 43L, 43L, 43L, 43L, 43L, 43L, 43L, 43L, 44L, 44L, 44L, 
                           44L, 44L, 44L, 44L, 44L, 44L, 44L, 45L, 45L, 45L, 45L, 45L, 45L, 
                           45L, 45L, 45L, 45L, 46L, 46L, 46L, 46L, 46L, 46L, 46L, 46L, 46L, 
                           46L, 47L, 47L, 47L, 47L, 47L, 47L, 47L, 47L, 47L, 47L, 48L, 48L, 
                           48L, 48L, 48L, 48L, 48L, 48L, 48L, 48L, 49L, 49L, 49L, 49L, 49L, 
                           49L, 49L, 49L, 49L, 49L, 50L, 50L, 50L, 50L, 50L, 50L, 50L, 50L, 
                           50L, 50L, 51L, 51L, 51L, 51L, 51L, 51L, 51L, 51L, 51L, 51L, 52L, 
                           52L, 52L, 52L, 52L, 52L, 52L, 52L, 52L, 52L, 53L, 53L, 53L, 53L, 
                           53L, 53L, 53L, 53L, 53L, 53L, 54L, 54L, 54L, 54L, 54L, 54L, 54L, 
                           54L, 54L, 54L, 55L, 55L, 55L, 55L, 55L, 55L, 55L, 55L, 55L, 55L, 
                           56L, 56L, 56L, 56L, 56L, 56L, 56L, 56L, 56L, 56L, 57L, 57L, 57L, 
                           57L, 57L, 57L, 57L, 57L, 57L, 57L, 58L, 58L, 58L, 58L, 58L, 58L, 
                           58L, 58L, 58L, 58L, 59L, 59L, 59L, 59L, 59L, 59L, 59L, 59L, 59L, 
                           59L, 60L, 60L, 60L, 60L, 60L, 60L, 60L, 60L, 60L, 60L, 61L, 61L, 
                           61L, 61L, 61L, 61L, 61L, 61L, 61L, 61L, 62L, 62L, 62L, 62L, 62L, 
                           62L, 62L, 62L, 62L, 62L, 63L, 63L, 63L, 63L, 63L, 63L, 63L, 63L, 
                           63L, 63L, 64L, 64L, 64L, 64L, 64L, 64L, 64L, 64L, 64L, 64L, 65L, 
                           65L, 65L, 65L, 65L, 65L, 65L, 65L, 65L, 65L, 66L, 66L, 66L, 66L, 
                           66L, 66L, 66L, 66L, 66L, 66L, 67L, 67L, 67L, 67L, 67L, 67L, 67L, 
                           67L, 67L, 67L, 68L, 68L, 68L, 68L, 68L, 68L, 68L, 68L, 68L, 68L, 
                           69L, 69L, 69L, 69L, 69L, 69L, 69L, 69L, 69L, 69L, 70L, 70L, 70L, 
                           70L, 70L, 70L, 70L, 70L, 70L, 70L, 71L, 71L, 71L, 71L, 71L, 71L, 
                           71L, 71L, 71L, 71L, 72L, 72L, 72L, 72L, 72L, 72L, 72L, 72L, 72L, 
                           72L, 73L, 73L, 73L, 73L, 73L, 73L, 73L, 73L, 73L, 73L, 74L, 74L, 
                           74L, 74L, 74L, 74L, 74L, 74L, 74L, 74L, 75L, 75L, 75L, 75L, 75L, 
                           75L, 75L, 75L, 75L, 75L, 76L, 76L, 76L, 76L, 76L, 76L, 76L, 76L, 
                           76L, 76L, 77L, 77L, 77L, 77L, 77L, 77L, 77L, 77L, 77L, 77L, 78L, 
                           78L, 78L, 78L, 78L, 78L, 78L, 78L, 78L, 78L, 79L, 79L, 79L, 79L, 
                           79L, 79L, 79L, 79L, 79L, 79L, 80L, 80L, 80L, 80L, 80L, 80L, 80L, 
                           80L, 80L, 80L, 81L, 81L, 81L, 81L, 81L, 81L, 81L, 81L, 81L, 81L, 
                           82L, 82L, 82L, 82L, 82L, 82L, 82L, 82L, 82L, 82L, 83L, 83L, 83L, 
                           83L, 83L, 83L, 83L, 83L, 83L, 83L, 84L, 84L, 84L, 84L, 84L, 84L, 
                           84L, 84L, 84L, 84L, 85L, 85L, 85L, 85L, 85L, 85L, 85L, 85L, 85L, 
                           85L, 86L, 86L, 86L, 86L, 86L, 86L, 86L, 86L, 86L, 86L, 87L, 87L, 
                           87L, 87L, 87L, 87L, 87L, 87L, 87L, 87L, 88L, 88L, 88L, 88L, 88L, 
                           88L, 88L, 88L, 88L, 88L, 89L, 89L, 89L, 89L, 89L, 89L, 89L, 89L, 
                           89L, 89L), 
               outcome = c(0, 1, 0, NA, NA, 1, NA, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 
                           1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 
                           1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, NA, 1, 0, 
                           NA, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 
                           1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 
                           0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 
                           1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 
                           1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 
                           0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 
                           1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 
                           1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 
                           1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 
                           0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 
                           0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 
                           0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 
                           0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 
                           0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 
                           1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 
                           1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 
                           0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 
                           0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 
                           1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 
                           1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 
                           0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 
                           0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 
                           0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 
                           1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 
                           0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 
                           1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 
                           0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 
                           1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 
                           0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 
                           1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 
                           0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 
                           1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 
                           0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 
                           0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 
                           0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 
                           1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 
                           1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 
                           0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 
                           0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 
                           0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1), 
               var_to_control_for = structure(c(1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                                2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                                1L), 
                                              .Label = c("A", "B"), class = "factor"), 
               predictor = structure(c(1L, 
                                       2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 
                                       2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 
                                       2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 
                                       2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 
                                       2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 
                                       2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 
                                       1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 
                                       1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 
                                       1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 
                                       1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 
                                       1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 
                                       1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 
                                       2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 
                                       2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 
                                       2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                       2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 
                                       2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 
                                       1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 
                                       2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 
                                       1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                       2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 
                                       2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 
                                       2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 
                                       1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                       2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 
                                       1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                       1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 
                                       1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 
                                       1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 
                                       1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 
                                       2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 
                                       2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                       2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 
                                       2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 
                                       2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 
                                       1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 
                                       1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                       2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 
                                       1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 
                                       1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                       2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 
                                       2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 
                                       2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 
                                       2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 
                                       2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 
                                       1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 
                                       2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                       2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 
                                       2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 
                                       1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 
                                       1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                       1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 
                                       2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 
                                       1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 
                                       2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 
                                       1L), 
                                     .Label = c("n", "p"), 
                                     class = "factor")), 
          row.names = c(NA, -882L), 
          class = c("tbl_df", "tbl", "data.frame"))

## fit binomial logistic regression
library(emmeans)
library(ggeffects)

my_fit <- glm(outcome ~ predictor + var_to_control_for, data = my_data, family = "binomial")
ggemmeans(my_fit, terms = "predictor")
#> # Predicted probabilities of outcome
#> 
#> predictor | Predicted |       95% CI
#> ------------------------------------
#> n         |      0.71 | [0.67, 0.75]
#> p         |      0.16 | [0.13, 0.20]

## export data to spss
library(haven)

write_sav(my_data, "my_data.sav")

Created on 2021-09-04 by the reprex package (v2.0.0)

SPSS

via syntax

LOGISTIC REGRESSION VARIABLES outcome
  /METHOD=ENTER var_to_control_for predictor 
  /CONTRAST (var_to_control_for)=Indicator
  /CONTRAST (predictor)=Indicator
  /CRITERIA=PIN(.05) POUT(.10) ITERATE(20) CUT(.5).

Best Answer

Both models are identical and will lead to identical predicted probabilities. The apparent discrepancies between SPSS and R are due to different reference levels of the categorical predictors. As I explain here in detail, when using dummy contrasts, the coefficients for categorical predicators are differences between that level of the predictor and the chosen reference level. In logistic regression, the coefficients denote differences in log-odds. What level of the categorical predictor serves as reference level is arbitrary and different choices will lead to identical models, albeit with different coefficients.

In R, the first level of the categorical predictor is taken as the reference level. In your case, this is n for predictor and A for var_to_control_for. Hence, the coefficients that R produces are the differences in log-odds between p and the reference level n and between B and A for predictor and var_to_control_for, respectively. In R, you can change the reference level with relevel (see my other answer for an example). In SPSS, you can chose the first level as reference level by adding a (1) to Indicator in the syntax. If you omit this, the last level is taken as reference.

In summary, to get identical outputs, you need to chose the same reference levels for both predictors in both R and SPSS. Hence, the following syntax for SPSS will do just that:

LOGISTIC REGRESSION VARIABLES outcome
  /METHOD=ENTER var_to_control_for predictor 
  /CONTRAST (var_to_control_for)=Indicator(1)
  /CONTRAST (predictor)=Indicator(1)
  /CRITERIA=PIN(.05) POUT(.10) ITERATE(20) CUT(.5).

Here is the corresponding output:

SPSS_output

As you can see, the coefficients and odds ratios are now identical to R's output.

Edit

In order to replicate the predicted probabilities of ggemmeans, use the GENLIN procedure and the EMMEANS option (note that these probabilities are averaged over the levels of var_to_control_for):

GENLIN outcome (REFERENCE=FIRST) BY var_to_control_for predictor (ORDER=DESCENDING)
    /MODEL var_to_control_for predictor INTERCEPT=YES
    DISTRIBUTION=BINOMIAL LINK=LOGIT
    /CRITERIA METHOD=FISHER(1) SCALE=1 COVB=MODEL MAXITERATIONS=100 MAXSTEPHALVING=5
    PCONVERGE=1E-006(ABSOLUTE) SINGULAR=1E-012 ANALYSISTYPE=3(WALD) CILEVEL=95 CITYPE=WALD
    LIKELIHOOD=FULL
    /MISSING CLASSMISSING=EXCLUDE
    /EMMEANS SCALE = ORIGINAL
    /EMMEANS TABLES = predictor
    /PRINT CPS DESCRIPTIVES MODELINFO FIT SUMMARY SOLUTION.
Related Question